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The Meteorological Office, abbreviated as the Met Office, is the United Kingdom's national weather service.

Available DatasetsShowing 125 of 125 results
    Title
    Updated
  • Annual Index of Wind Driven Rain - Projections (5km)
    What does the data show? Wind-driven rain refers to falling rain blown by a horizontal wind so that it falls diagonally towards the ground and can strike a wall. The annual index of wind-driven rain is the sum of all wind-driven rain spells for a given wall orientation and time period. It’s measured as the volume of rain blown from a given direction in the absence of any obstructions, with the unit litres per square metre per year. Wind-driven rain is calculated from hourly weather and climate data using an industry-standard formula from ISO 15927–3:2009, which is based on the product of wind speed and rainfall totals. Wind-driven rain is only calculated if the wind would strike a given wall orientation. A wind-driven rain spell is defined as a wet period separated by at least 96 hours with little or no rain (below a threshold of 0.001 litres per m2 per hour). The annual index of wind-driven rain is calculated for a baseline (historical) period of 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.61°C warming) and for global warming levels of 2.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial period (defined as 1850-1900). The warming between the pre-industrial period and baseline is the average value from six datasets of global mean temperatures available on the Met Office Climate Dashboard: https://climate.metoffice.cloud/dashboard.html. Users can compare the magnitudes of future wind-driven rain with the baseline values.   What is a warming level and why are they used? The annual index of wind-driven rain is calculated from the UKCP18 local climate projections which used a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g., decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), so this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 2°C and 4°C in line with recommendations in the third UK Climate Risk Assessment. The data at each warming level were calculated using 20 year periods over which the average warming was equal to 2°C and 4°C. The exact time period will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the annual wind-driven rain index, an average is taken across the 20 year period. Therefore, the annual wind-driven rain index provides an estimate of the total wind-driven rain that could occur in each year, for a given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world in the future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected under current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate; the warming level reached will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? Each row in the data corresponds to one of eight wall orientations – 0, 45, 90, 135, 180, 225, 270, 315 compass degrees. This can be viewed and filtered by the field ‘Wall orientation’. The columns (fields) correspond to each global warming level and two baselines. They are named 'WDR' (Wind-Driven Rain), the warming level or baseline, and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’ as per the description below. For example, ‘WDR 2.0 median’ is the median value for the 2°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names; e.g., ‘WDR 2.0 median’ is ‘WDR_20_median’.  Please note that this data MUST be filtered with the ‘Wall orientation’ field before styling it by warming level. Otherwise it will not show the data you expect to see on the map. This is because there are several overlapping polygons at each location, for each different wall orientation. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, annual wind-driven rain indices were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.   Data source The annual wind-driven rain index was calculated from hourly values of rainfall, wind speed and wind direction generated from the UKCP Local climate projections. These projections were created with a 2.2km convection-permitting climate model. To aid comparison with other models and UK-based datasets, the UKCP Local model data were aggregated to a 5km grid on the British National Grid; the 5 km data were processed to generate the wind-driven rain data.   Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Winter Average Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tas_winter_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Winter Minimum Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tasmin_winter_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Count of Hot Summer Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Very high daytime temperatures with increased health impacts for vulnerable people at risk of hospital admission or death. Increased transport disruption – e.g. track buckling on railways, road melt. Overhead power lines become less efficient. One Hot Summer Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is HSD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Count of Icing Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    More extreme than Frost Days, so more severe cold weather impacts. One Icing Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is IcingDays_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Sum of Growing Degree Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Energy available for plant growth over a year. One Growing Degree Day is one day in which daily mean temperature is above the threshold by 1°C. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 6°C, this would contribute 0.5 Growing Degree Days to the annual sum.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is GDD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Sea Level Rise - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set is structured such that each row corresponds to a combination of a Local Authority, an emissions scenario (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a percentile among the model projections (5th, 50th, 95th). To display the data, you must first filter by the "RCP and Percentile" column. The columns (fields) correspond to each decade. The fields are named by sea level anomaly, in cm, at decade x, e.g. "seaLevelAnom_2050s" is the anomaly in 2051-2060 compared to the 1981-2000 average. Note, some Local Authorities will show as "Null", this means there is no sea level data available. To understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Winter Precipitation Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is pr_winter_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Average Temperature Change - Projections (12km)
    [Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.13°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in annual temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a year they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare annual average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below. PeriodDescription 1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period 2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period 2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 1.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 2°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 3°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000 4°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Annual Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.   The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for the 1981-2000 baseline, 2001-2020 period and each warming level. They are named 'tas annual change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or historic time period, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas annual change 2.0 median' is the median value for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas annual change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_annual_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas annual change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Annual Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.  Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Summer Average Temperature Change - Projections (12km)
    [Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.09°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer average temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged over the summer period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Summer Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.  The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tas summer change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas summer change 2.0 median' is named 'tas_summer_change_20_median'.  To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas summer change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.  Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Winter Average Temperature Change - Projections (12km)
    [Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.21°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in winter average temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, winter is defined as December-January-February. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions.The dataset uses projections of daily average air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged over the winter period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare winter average temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Winter Average Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Winter Average Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tas winter change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tas winter change 2.0 median' is the median value for winter for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tas change winter 2.0 median' is named 'tas_winter_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas winter change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Winter Average Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.  Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
    1
    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Summer Maximum Temperature Change - Projections (12km)
    [Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.26°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer maximum air temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. The dataset uses projections of daily maximum air temperature from UKCP18. For each year, the highest daily maximum temperature from the summer period is found. These are then averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer maximum temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Summer Maximum Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.  The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Maximum Temperature Change an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tasmax summer change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'tasmax summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tasmax summer change 2.0 median' is named 'tasmax_summer_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tasmax summer change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Maximum Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.  Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Winter Minimum Temperature Change - Projections (12km)
    [Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.37°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in winter minimum temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, winter is defined as December-January-February.The dataset uses projections of daily minimum air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare winter minimum temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Winter Minimum Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.   The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Winter Minimum Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tasmin winter change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. ‘tasmin winter change 2.0 median' is the median value for winter for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tasmin winter change 2.0 median' is named ‘tasmin_winter_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tasmin winter change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Winter Minimum Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.  Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Summer Precipitation Change - Projections (12km)
    [update 28/03/24 - This description previously stated that the the field “2001-2020 (recent past) change” was a percentage change. This field is actually the difference, in units of mm/day. The table below has been updated to reflect this.][Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell but for the fixed periods which are expressed in mm, the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.04mm.  For the fixed periods and global warming levels which are expressed as percentage changes, the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 4.65%.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in summer precipitation rate for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, summer is defined as June-July-August. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions. The dataset uses projections of daily precipitation from UKCP18 which are averaged over the summer period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a percentage change (%) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare summer precipitation trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below. Period Description 1981-2000 baseline Average value for the period (mm/day) 2001-2020 (recent past) Average value for the period (mm/day) 2001-2020 (recent past) change Change (mm/day) relative to 1981-2000 1.5°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 2°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 2.5°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 3°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 4°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 What is a global warming level? The Summer Precipitation Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Summer Precipitation Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level. What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'pr summer change', the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'pr summer change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'pr summer change 2.0 median' is named 'pr_summer_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr summer change 2.0°C median’ values. What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Precipitation Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful links For further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Winter Precipitation Change - Projections (12km)
    [update 28/03/24 - This description previously stated that the the field “2001-2020 (recent past) change” was a percentage change. This field is actually the difference, in units of mm/day. The table below has been updated to reflect this.][Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell but for the fixed periods which are expressed in mm, the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.04mm.  For the fixed periods and global warming levels which are expressed as percentage changes, the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 3.2%.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in winter precipitation rate for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, winter is defined as December-January-February. Note, as the values in this dataset are averaged over a season they do not represent possible extreme conditions. The dataset uses projections of daily precipitation from UKCP18 which are averaged over the winter period to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a percentage change (%) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare winter precipitation trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below. Period Description 1981-2000 baseline Average value for the period (mm/day) 2001-2020 (recent past) Average value for the period (mm/day) 2001-2020 (recent past) change Change (mm/day) relative to 1981-2000 1.5°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 2°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 2.5°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 3°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 4°C global warming level change Percentage change (%) relative to 1981-2000 What is a global warming level? The Winter Precipitation Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Winter Precipitation Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level. What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'pr winter change', the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. 'pr winter change 2.0 median' is the median value for summer for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'pr winter change 2.0 median' is named 'pr_winter_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr winter change 2.0°C median’ values. What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Summer Precipitation Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful links For further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Cooling Degree Days - Projections (12km)
    [Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 1.2.]What does the data show? A Cooling Degree Day (CDD) is a day in which the average temperature is above 22°C. It is the number of degrees above this threshold that counts as a Coolin Degree Day. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 22.5°C, this would contribute 0.5 Cooling Degree Days to the annual sum, alternatively an average temperature of 27°C would contribute 5 Cooling Degree Days. Given the data shows the annual sum of Cooling Degree Days, this value can be above 365 in some parts of the UK.Annual Cooling Degree Days is calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. This enables users to compare the future number of CDD to previous values.What are the possible societal impacts?Cooling Degree Days indicate the energy demand for cooling due to hot days. A higher number of CDD means an increase in power consumption for cooling and air conditioning, therefore this index is useful for predicting future changes in energy demand for cooling.In practice, this varies greatly throughout the UK, depending on personal thermal comfort levels and building designs, so these results should be considered as rough estimates of overall demand changes on a large scale.What is a global warming level?Annual Cooling Degree Days are calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.   The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Cooling Degree Days, an average is taken across the 21 year period. Therefore, the Annual Cooling Degree Days show the number of cooling degree days that could occur each year, for each given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for each global warming level and two baselines. They are named ‘CDD’ (Cooling Degree Days), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'CDD 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'CDD 2.5 median' is 'CDD_25_median'. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘CDD 2.0°C median’ values.What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, Annual Cooling Degree Days were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.  Useful linksThis dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report and uses the same temperature thresholds as the 'State of the UK Climate' report.Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Heating Degree Days - Projections (12km)
    [Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average percentage change between the 'lower' values before and after this update is -1%.]What does the data show? A Heating Degree Day (HDD) is a day in which the average temperature is below 15.5°C. It is the number of degrees above this threshold that counts as a Heating Degree Day. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 15°C, this would contribute 0.5 Heating Degree Days to the annual sum, alternatively an average temperature of 10.5°C would contribute 5 Heating Degree Days. Given the data shows the annual sum of Heating Degree Days, this value can be above 365 in some parts of the UK.Annual Heating Degree Days is calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. This enables users to compare the future number of HDD to previous values.What are the possible societal impacts?Heating Degree Days indicate the energy demand for heating due to cold days.  A higher number of HDD means an increase in power consumption for heating, therefore this index is useful for predicting future changes in energy demand for heating.What is a global warming level?Annual Heating Degree Days are calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.   The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Heating Degree Days, an average is taken across the 21 year period. Therefore, the Annual Heating Degree Days show the number of heating degree days that could occur each year, for each given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for each warming level and two baselines. They are named ‘HDD’ (Heating Degree Days), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'HDD 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'HDD 2.5 median' is 'HDD_25_median'. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘HDD 2.0°C median’ values.What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, Annual Heating Degree Days were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.  Useful linksThis dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report and uses the same temperature thresholds as the 'State of the UK Climate' report.Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Growing Degree Days - Projections (12km)
    [Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average percentage change between the 'lower' values before and after this update is -1%.]What does the data show? A Growing Degree Day (GDD) is a day in which the average temperature is above 5.5°C. It is the number of degrees above this threshold that counts as a Growing Degree Day. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 6°C, this would contribute 0.5 Growing Degree Days to the annual sum, alternatively an average temperature of 10.5°C would contribute 5 Growing Degree Days. Given the data shows the annual sum of Growing Degree Days, this value can be above 365 in some parts of the UK.Annual Growing Degree Days are calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. This enables users to compare the future number of GDD to previous values. What are the possible societal impacts?Annual Growing Degree Days indicate if conditions are suitable for plant growth. An increase in GDD can indicate larger crop yields due to increased crop growth from warm temperatures, but crop growth also depends on other factors. For example, GDD do not include any measure of rainfall/drought, sunlight, day length or wind, species vulnerability, or plant dieback in extremely high temperatures. GDD can indicate increased crop growth until temperatures reach a critical level above which there are detrimental impacts on plant physiology.GDD does not estimate the growth of specific species and is not a measure of season length.What is a global warming level?Annual Growing Degree Days are calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming.   The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Growing Degree Days, an average is taken across the 21 year period. Therefore, the Annual Growing Degree Days show the number of growing degree days that could occur each year, for each given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for each global warming level and two baselines. They are named 'GDD' (Growing Degree Days), the warming level or baseline, and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’ as per the description below. E.g. ‘GDD 2.5 median’ is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. ‘GDD 2.5 median’ is ‘GDD_25_median’. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘GDD 2.0°C median’ values.What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, Annual Growing Degree Days were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.  Useful linksThis dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report and uses the same temperature thresholds as the 'State of the UK Climate' report.Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Very high daytime temperatures with health impacts affecting not just the vulnerable: heat related illnesses, hospital admissions or death. Further transport disruption – e.g. track buckling on railways, road melt. One Extreme Summer Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is ESD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Average Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tas_annual_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Count of Frost Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Cold weather disruption due to higher than normal chance of ice and snow. One Frost Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is FrostDays_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Sum of Cooling Degree Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Indicator of energy demand for cooling. One Cooling Degree Day is one day in which daily mean temperature is above the threshold by 1°C. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 22.5°C, this would contribute 0.5 Cooling Degree Days to the annual sum.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is CDD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Summer Precipitation Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is pr_summer_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Seasonal Average Wind Speed - Projections (5km)
    What does the data show? The dataset is derived from projections of seasonal mean wind speeds from UKCP18 which are averaged to produce values for the 1981-2000 baseline and two warming levels: 2.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. All wind speeds have units of metres per second (m / s). These data enable users to compare future seasonal mean wind speeds to those of the baseline period.   What is a warming level and why are they used? The wind speeds were calculated from the UKCP18 local climate projections which used a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g., decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at two levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), so this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 2°C and 4°C in line with recommendations in the third UK Climate Risk Assessment. The data at each warming level were calculated using 20 year periods over which the average warming was equal to 2°C and 4°C. The exact time period will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the seasonal mean wind speeds, an average is taken across the 20 year period. Therefore, the seasonal wind speeds represent those for a given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world in the future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected under current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate; the warming level reached will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? The columns (fields) correspond to each global warming level and two baselines. They are named 'windspeed' (Wind Speed), the season, warming level or baseline, and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’ as per the description below. For example, ‘windspeed winter 2.0 median’ is the median winter wind speed for the 2°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names; e.g., ‘windspeed winter 2.0 median’ is ‘ws_winter_20_median’.  To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, seasonal mean wind speeds were calculated for each ensemble member and then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.   Data source The seasonal mean wind speeds were calculated from daily values of wind speeds generated from the UKCP Local climate projections; they are one of the standard UKCP18 products. These projections were created with a 2.2km convection-permitting climate model. To aid comparison with other models and UK-based datasets, the UKCP Local model data were aggregated to a 5km grid on the British National grid; the 5km data were processed to generate the seasonal mean wind speeds.   Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Sum of Heating Degree Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Indicator of energy demand for heating. One Heating Degree Day is one day in which daily mean temperature is below the threshold by 1°C. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 15°C, this would contribute 0.5 Heating Degree Days to the annual sum.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is HDD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    10 months ago
  • Annual Count of Tropical Nights - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Health impact due to high night-time temperatures with potential for heat stress. Vulnerable people are at increased risk of hospital admission or death. One Tropical Night is one night in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is TropicalNights_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    11 months ago
  • Annual Count of Summer Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    High daytime temperatures with health impacts for vulnerable people at risk of hospital admission or death. Transport disruption – e.g. track buckling on railways. Can also indicate periods of increased water demand. One Summer Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is SummerDays_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    11 months ago
  • Summer Average Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tas_summer_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    11 months ago
  • Summer Maximum Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tasmax_summer_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Index of Wind Driven Rain - Projections (5km)
    What does the data show? Wind-driven rain refers to falling rain blown by a horizontal wind so that it falls diagonally towards the ground and can strike a wall. The annual index of wind-driven rain is the sum of all wind-driven rain spells for a given wall orientation and time period. It’s measured as the volume of rain blown from a given direction in the absence of any obstructions, with the unit litres per square metre per year. Wind-driven rain is calculated from hourly weather and climate data using an industry-standard formula from ISO 15927–3:2009, which is based on the product of wind speed and rainfall totals. Wind-driven rain is only calculated if the wind would strike a given wall orientation. A wind-driven rain spell is defined as a wet period separated by at least 96 hours with little or no rain (below a threshold of 0.001 litres per m2 per hour). The annual index of wind-driven rain is calculated for a baseline (historical) period of 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.61°C warming) and for global warming levels of 2.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial period (defined as 1850-1900). The warming between the pre-industrial period and baseline is the average value from six datasets of global mean temperatures available on the Met Office Climate Dashboard: https://climate.metoffice.cloud/dashboard.html. Users can compare the magnitudes of future wind-driven rain with the baseline values.   What is a warming level and why are they used? The annual index of wind-driven rain is calculated from the UKCP18 local climate projections which used a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g., decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), so this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 2°C and 4°C in line with recommendations in the third UK Climate Risk Assessment. The data at each warming level were calculated using 20 year periods over which the average warming was equal to 2°C and 4°C. The exact time period will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the annual wind-driven rain index, an average is taken across the 20 year period. Therefore, the annual wind-driven rain index provides an estimate of the total wind-driven rain that could occur in each year, for a given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world in the future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected under current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate; the warming level reached will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? Each row in the data corresponds to one of eight wall orientations – 0, 45, 90, 135, 180, 225, 270, 315 compass degrees. This can be viewed and filtered by the field ‘Wall orientation’. The columns (fields) correspond to each global warming level and two baselines. They are named 'WDR' (Wind-Driven Rain), the warming level or baseline, and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’ as per the description below. For example, ‘WDR 2.0 median’ is the median value for the 2°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names; e.g., ‘WDR 2.0 median’ is ‘WDR_20_median’.  Please note that this data MUST be filtered with the ‘Wall orientation’ field before styling it by warming level. Otherwise it will not show the data you expect to see on the map. This is because there are several overlapping polygons at each location, for each different wall orientation. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, annual wind-driven rain indices were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.   Data source The annual wind-driven rain index was calculated from hourly values of rainfall, wind speed and wind direction generated from the UKCP Local climate projections. These projections were created with a 2.2km convection-permitting climate model. To aid comparison with other models and UK-based datasets, the UKCP Local model data were aggregated to a 5km grid on the British National Grid; the 5 km data were processed to generate the wind-driven rain data.   Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Summer Average Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tas_summer_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Summer Maximum Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tasmax_summer_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Count of Summer Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    High daytime temperatures with health impacts for vulnerable people at risk of hospital admission or death. Transport disruption – e.g. track buckling on railways. Can also indicate periods of increased water demand. One Summer Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is SummerDays_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Count of Extreme Summer Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Very high daytime temperatures with health impacts affecting not just the vulnerable: heat related illnesses, hospital admissions or death. Further transport disruption – e.g. track buckling on railways, road melt. One Extreme Summer Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is ESD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Count of Frost Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Cold weather disruption due to higher than normal chance of ice and snow. One Frost Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is FrostDays_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Sum of Growing Degree Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Energy available for plant growth over a year. One Growing Degree Day is one day in which daily mean temperature is above the threshold by 1°C. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 6°C, this would contribute 0.5 Growing Degree Days to the annual sum.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is GDD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Sum of Cooling Degree Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Indicator of energy demand for cooling. One Cooling Degree Day is one day in which daily mean temperature is above the threshold by 1°C. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 22.5°C, this would contribute 0.5 Cooling Degree Days to the annual sum.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is CDD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Winter Precipitation Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is pr_winter_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Count of Icing Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    More extreme than Frost Days, so more severe cold weather impacts. One Icing Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is IcingDays_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Sum of Heating Degree Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Indicator of energy demand for heating. One Heating Degree Day is one day in which daily mean temperature is below the threshold by 1°C. For example if the average temperature for a specific day is 15°C, this would contribute 0.5 Heating Degree Days to the annual sum.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is HDD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Sea Level Rise - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set is structured such that each row corresponds to a combination of a Local Authority, an emissions scenario (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a percentile among the model projections (5th, 50th, 95th). To display the data, you must first filter by the "RCP and Percentile" column. The columns (fields) correspond to each decade. The fields are named by sea level anomaly, in cm, at decade x, e.g. "seaLevelAnom_2050s" is the anomaly in 2051-2060 compared to the 1981-2000 average. Note, some Local Authorities will show as "Null", this means there is no sea level data available. To understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Summer Precipitation Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is pr_summer_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Average Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tas_annual_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Winter Average Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tas_winter_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Winter Minimum Temperature Change - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tasmin_winter_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Count of Hot Summer Days - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Very high daytime temperatures with increased health impacts for vulnerable people at risk of hospital admission or death. Increased transport disruption – e.g. track buckling on railways, road melt. Overhead power lines become less efficient. One Hot Summer Day is one day in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is HSD_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Annual Count of Tropical Nights - Projections (Local Authority) v1
    Health impact due to high night-time temperatures with potential for heat stress. Vulnerable people are at increased risk of hospital admission or death. One Tropical Night is one night in which the threshold is passed in a year.This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is TropicalNights_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.
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    Licence not specified
    12 months ago
  • Seasonal Average Wind Speed - Projections (5km)
    What does the data show? The dataset is derived from projections of seasonal mean wind speeds from UKCP18 which are averaged to produce values for the 1981-2000 baseline and two warming levels: 2.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. All wind speeds have units of metres per second (m / s). These data enable users to compare future seasonal mean wind speeds to those of the baseline period.   What is a warming level and why are they used? The wind speeds were calculated from the UKCP18 local climate projections which used a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g., decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at two levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), so this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 2°C and 4°C in line with recommendations in the third UK Climate Risk Assessment. The data at each warming level were calculated using 20 year periods over which the average warming was equal to 2°C and 4°C. The exact time period will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the seasonal mean wind speeds, an average is taken across the 20 year period. Therefore, the seasonal wind speeds represent those for a given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world in the future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected under current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate; the warming level reached will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? The columns (fields) correspond to each global warming level and two baselines. They are named 'windspeed' (Wind Speed), the season, warming level or baseline, and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’ as per the description below. For example, ‘windspeed winter 2.0 median’ is the median winter wind speed for the 2°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names; e.g., ‘windspeed winter 2.0 median’ is ‘ws_winter_20_median’.  To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, seasonal mean wind speeds were calculated for each ensemble member and then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past.   Data source The seasonal mean wind speeds were calculated from daily values of wind speeds generated from the UKCP Local climate projections; they are one of the standard UKCP18 products. These projections were created with a 2.2km convection-permitting climate model. To aid comparison with other models and UK-based datasets, the UKCP Local model data were aggregated to a 5km grid on the British National grid; the 5km data were processed to generate the seasonal mean wind speeds.   Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.
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    12 months ago
  • Annual Precipitation Projections 2050-2079
    What does the data show? This data shows annual averages of precipitation (mm/day) for 2050-2079 from the UKCP18 regional climate projections. The data is for the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for the average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower'. E.g. 'pr Median' is the median value.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr January Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the annual averages of precipitation for 2050-2079 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (median) pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower) pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper) UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)   Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    Licence not specified
    over 1 year ago
  • Annual Temperature Projections 2050-2079
    What does the data show? This data shows annual averages of surface temperature (°C) for 2050-2079 from the UKCP18 regional climate projections. The data is for the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for the average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower'. E.g. 'tas Median' is the median value.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr January Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the annual averages of surface temperature for 2050-2079 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (median) tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower) tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper) UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)   Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 1 year ago
  • Monthly Global Min Temperature 1981-2010
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of minimum surface temperature (°C) for 1981-2010 from CRU TS (v. 4.06) dataset. It is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator. This is the same as the 60km grid used by UKCP18 global datasets.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmin' (temperature minimum) and the month. E.g. ‘tmin March’ is the average of the daily minimum temperatures in March throughout 1981-2010.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tmin January’ values.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    Licence not specified
    over 1 year ago
  • Monthly Global Temperature 1981-2010
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of surface temperature (°C) for 1981-2010 from CRU TS (v. 4.06) dataset. It is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator. This is the same as the 60km grid used by UKCP18 global datasets.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface) and the month. E.g. ‘tas March’ is the average of the daily average surface air temperatures in March throughout 1981-2010.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas January’ values.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    Licence not specified
    over 1 year ago
  • Monthly Temperature Projections 2050-2079
    What does the data show? This data shows monthly averages of surface temperature (°C) for 2050-2079 from the UKCP18 regional climate projections. The data is for the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for the average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower'. E.g. 'tas July Median' is the median value for July.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas January Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of temperature for 2050-2079 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (median) tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower) tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper) UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)   Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    Licence not specified
    over 1 year ago
  • Monthly Global Max Temperature 1981-2010
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of maximum surface temperature (°C) for 1981-2010 from CRU TS (v. 4.06) dataset. It is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator. This is the same as the 60km grid used by UKCP18 global datasets.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmax' (temperature minimum) and the month. E.g. ‘tmax March’ is the average of the daily maximum temperatures in March throughout 1981-2010.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tmax January’ values.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    Licence not specified
    over 1 year ago
  • Monthly Global Precipitation 1981-2010
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of rainfall amount (mm) for 1981-2010 from CRU TS (v. 4.06) dataset. It is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator. This is the same as the 60km grid used by UKCP18 global datasets.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation) and the month. E.g. ‘pr March’ is the average of the monthly total rainfall in March throughout 1981-2010.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr January’ values.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal    
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    over 1 year ago
  • Monthly Precipitation Projections 2050-2079
    What does the data show? This data shows monthly averages of precipitation (mm/day) for 2050-2079 from the UKCP18 regional climate projections. The data is for the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower'. E.g. 'pr July Median' is the median value for July.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr January Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of precipitation for 2050-2079 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (median) pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower) pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper) UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)   Useful links Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 1 year ago
  • Monthly Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    What does the data show?  The data shows monthly averages of surface temperature (°C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data. It is provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG).    Limitations of the dataWe recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?  This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface) and the month. E.g. 'tas March' is the average surface temperature for March in the period 1991-2020.    To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578    Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas January’ values.    Data source:   ·       Version: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 21/06/2022)  ·       Source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0f  ·       Filename: tas_hadukgrid_uk_12km_mon-30y_199101-202012.nc      Useful links  ·       Further information on HadUK-Grid  ·       Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    over 2 years ago
  • Exploratory Extended Time-mean Sea Level Projections to 2300 (cm)
    Please note this dataset supersedes previous versions on the Climate Data Portal. It has been uploaded following an update to the dataset in March 2023. This means sea level rise is approximately 1cm higher (larger) compared to the original data release (i.e. the previous version available on this portal) for all UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections at all timescales. For more details please refer to the technical note.What does the data show?The exploratory extended time-mean sea-level projections to 2300 show the amount of sea-level change (in cm) for each coastal location (grid-box) around the British Isles for several emission scenarios. Sea-level rise is the primary mechanism by which we expect coastal flood risk to change in the UK in the future. The amount of sea-level rise depends on the location around the British Isles and increases with higher emission scenarios. Here, we provide the relative time-mean sea-level projections to 2300, i.e. the local sea-level change experienced at a particular location compared to the 1981-2000 average, produced as part of UKCP18.For each grid box the time-mean sea-level change projections are provided for the end of each decade (e.g. 2010, 2020, 2030 etc) for three emission scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and for three percentiles.The emission scenarios are:RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP8.5The percentiles are:5th percentile50th percentile95th percentileImportant limitations of the dataWe cannot rule out substantial additional sea-level rise associated with ice sheet instability processes that are not represented in the UKCP18 projections, as discussed in the recent IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). These exploratory projections show sea levels continue to increase beyond 2100 even with large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It should be noted that these projections have a greater degree of uncertainty than the 21st Century Projections and should therefore be treated as illustrative of the potential future changes. They are designed to be used alongside the 21st Century projections for those interested in exploring post-2100 changes.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?The data is supplied so that each row corresponds to the combination of a RCP emissions scenario and percentile value e.g. 'RCP45_50' is the RCP4.5 scenario and the 50th percentile. This can be viewed and filtered by the field 'RCP and Percentile'. The columns (fields) correspond to the end of each decade and the fields are named by sea level anomaly at year x, e.g. '2050 seaLevelAnom' is the sea level anomaly at 2050 compared to the 1981-2000 average.Please note that the styling and filtering options are independent of each other and the attribute you wish to style the data by can be set differently to the one you filter by. Please ensure that you have selected the RCP/percentile and decade you want to both filter and style the data by. Select the cell you are interested in to view all values.To understand how to explore the data please refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap.What are the emission scenarios?The 21st Century time-mean sea level projections were produced using some of the future emission scenarios used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These are RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which are based on the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. RCP2.6 is an aggressive mitigation pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced. RCP4.5 is an intermediate ‘stabilisation’ pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by varying levels. RCP8.5 is a high emission pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unmitigated. Further information is available in the Understanding Climate Data ESRI Storymap and the RCP Guidance on the UKCP18 website.What are the percentiles?The UKCP18 sea-level projections are based on a large Monte Carlo simulation that represents 450,000 possible outcomes in terms of global mean sea-level change. The Monte Carlo simulation is designed to sample the uncertainties across the different components of sea-level rise, and the amount of warming we see for a given emissions scenario across CMIP5 climate models. The percentiles are used to characterise the uncertainty in the Monte Carlo projections based on the statistical distribution of the 450,000 individual simulation members. For example, the 50th percentile represents the central estimate (median) amongst the model projections. Whilst the 95th percentile value means 95% of the model distribution is below that value and similarly the 5th percentile value means 5% of the model distribution is below that value. The range between the 5th to 95th percentiles represent the projection range amongst models and corresponds to the IPCC AR5 “likely range”. It should be noted that, there may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world sea level rise lies outside this range.Data sourceThis data is an extract of a larger dataset (every year and more percentiles) which is available on CEDA at https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/a077f4058cda4cd4b37ccfbdf1a6bd29Data has been extracted from the v20221219 version (downloaded 17/04/2023) of three files:seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp26_ann_2007-2300.ncseaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp45_ann_2007-2300.ncseaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp85_ann_2007-2300.ncUseful links to find out moreFor a comprehensive description of the underpinning science, evaluation and results see the UKCP18 Marine Projections Report (Palmer et al, 2018).For a discussion on ice sheet instability processes in the latest IPCC assessment report, see Fox-Kemper et al (2021). Technical note for the update to the underpinning data: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp_tech_note_sea_level_mar23.pdf.Further information in the Met Office Climate Data Portal Understanding Climate Data ESRI Storymap.
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    over 2 years ago
  • Time-mean Sea Level Projections to 2100 (cm)
    Please note this dataset supersedes previous versions on the Climate Data Portal. It has been uploaded following an update to the dataset in March 2023. This means sea level rise is approximately 1cm higher (larger) compared to the original data release (i.e. the previous version available on this portal) for all UKCP18 site-specific sea level projections at all timescales. For more details please refer to the technical note.What does the data show?The time-mean sea-level projections to 2100 show the amount of sea-level change (in cm) for each coastal location (grid-box) around the British Isles for several emission scenarios. Sea-level rise is the primary mechanism by which we expect coastal flood hazard to change in the UK in the future. The amount of sea-level rise depends on the location around the British Isles and increases with higher emission scenarios. Here, we provide the relative time-mean sea-level projections to 2100, i.e. the local sea-level change experienced at a particular location compared to the 1981-2000 average, produced as part of UKCP18.For each grid box the time-mean sea-level change projections are provided for the end of each decade (e.g. 2010, 2020, 2030 etc) for three emission scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and for three percentiles.The emission scenarios are:RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP8.5The percentiles are:5th percentile50th percentile95th percentileImportant limitations of the dataWe cannot rule out substantial additional sea-level rise associated with ice sheet instability processes that are not represented in the UKCP18 projections, as discussed in the recent IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Although the time-mean sea-level projections presented here are to 2100, past greenhouse gas emissions have already committed us to substantial additional sea level rise beyond 2100. This is because the ocean and cryosphere (i.e. the frozen parts of our planet) are very slow to respond to global warming. So, even if global average air temperature stops rising, as global emissions are reduced, sea level will continue to rise well beyond the time changes in global average air temperature level off or decline. This is illustrated by the extended exploratory time-mean sea level projections and discussed further in AR6 (Fox-Kemper et al, 2021).What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?The data is supplied so that each row corresponds to the combination of a RCP emissions scenario and percentile value e.g. 'RCP45_50' is the RCP4.5 scenario and the 50th percentile. This can be viewed and filtered by the field 'RCP and Percentile'. The columns (fields) correspond to the end of each decade and the fields are named by sea level anomaly at year x, e.g. '2050 seaLevelAnom' is the sea level anomaly at 2050 compared to the 1981-2000 average.Please note that the styling and filtering options are independent of each other and the attribute you wish to style the data by can be set differently to the one you filter by. Please ensure that you have selected the RCP/percentile and decade you want to both filter and style the data by. Select the cell you are interested in to view all values. To understand how to explore the data please refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap.What are the emission scenarios?The 21st Century time-mean sea level projections were produced using some of the future emission scenarios used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These are RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which are based on the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. RCP2.6 is an aggressive mitigation pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced. RCP4.5 is an intermediate ‘stabilisation’ pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by varying levels. RCP8.5 is a high emission pathway, where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unmitigated. Further information is available in the Understanding Climate Data ESRI Storymap and the RCP Guidance on the UKCP18 website.What are the percentiles?The UKCP18 sea-level projections are based on a large Monte Carlo simulation that represents 450,000 possible outcomes in terms of global mean sea-level change. The Monte Carlo simulation is designed to sample the uncertainties across the different components of sea-level rise, and the amount of warming we see for a given emissions scenario across CMIP5 climate models. The percentiles are used to characterise the uncertainty in the Monte Carlo projections based on the statistical distribution of the 450,000 individual simulation members. For example, the 50th percentile represents the central estimate (median) amongst the model projections. Whilst the 95th percentile value means 95% of the model distribution is below that value and similarly the 5th percentile value means 5% of the model distribution is below that value. The range between the 5th to 95th percentiles represent the projection range amongst models and corresponds to the IPCC AR5 “likely range”. It should be noted that, there may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world sea level rise lies outside this range. Data sourceThis data is an extract of a larger dataset (every year and more percentiles) which is available on CEDA at https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/0f8d27b1192f41088cd6983e98faa46eData has been extracted from the v20221219 version (downloaded 17/04/2023) of three files:seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp26_ann_2007-2100.ncseaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp45_ann_2007-2100.ncseaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp85_ann_2007-2100.ncUseful links to find out moreFor a comprehensive description of the underpinning science, evaluation and results see the UKCP18 Marine Projections Report (Palmer et al, 2018).For a discussion on ice sheet instability processes in the latest IPCC assessment report, see Fox-Kemper et al (2021). Technical note for the update to the underpinning data: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp_tech_note_sea_level_mar23.pdfFurther information in the Met Office Climate Data Portal Understanding Climate Data ESRI Storymap.
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    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of 10mm Rainfall Days 1991-2020
    What does the data show? This data shows the annual number of 10mm rainfall days (days where rainfall is equal to or greater than 10mm) averaged over the 1991-2020 period. The data is from the HadUK-Grid v.1.1.0.0 dataset and is provided on the 2km British National Grid (BNG).   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for the average over the period, named ‘Rainfall 10mm Days’.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Data source HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)   Useful links Further information on HadUK-Grid Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Temperature Projections 2040-2069
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of surface temperature (°C) for 2040-2069 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.   The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with an anomaly from UKCP18 global. Where the anomaly is the change in temperature at 2040-2069 relative to 1981-2010.   The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘tas Mar Lower’ is the average of the daily average temperatures in March throughout 2040-2069, in the second lowest ensemble member.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas Jan Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.   To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of surface temperature for the period 2040-2069 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22) UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Min Temperature Projections 2040-2069
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of minimum surface temperature (°C) for 2040-2069 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.   The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with an anomaly from UKCP18 global. Where the anomaly is the change in temperature at 2040-2069 relative to 1981-2010.   The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmin' (temperature minimum), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘tmin Mar Lower’ is the average of the daily minimum temperatures in March throughout 2040-2069, in the second lowest ensemble member.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tmin Jan Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.   To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of minimum surface temperature for the period 2040-2069 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22) UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Max Temperature Projections 2040-2069
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of maximum surface temperature (°C) for 2040-2069 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.   The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with an anomaly from UKCP18 global. Where the anomaly is the change in temperature at 2040-2069 relative to 1981-2010.   The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmax' (temperature maximum), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘tmax Mar Lower’ is the average of the daily minimum temperatures in March throughout 2040-2069, in the second lowest ensemble member.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tmax Jan Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.   To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of maximum surface temperature for the period 2040-2069 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22) UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Precipitation Projections 2040-2069
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of rainfall amount (mm) for 2040-2069 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.   The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with a percentage change relative to 1981-2010 from UKCP18 global. Where the baseline value was <1mm/month, the projection value has been replaced with 'Null' because the percentage change may be unreliable with a very small baseline.   The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘pr Mar Lower’ is the average of monthly-total rainfall in March throughout 2040-2069, in the second lowest ensemble member.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr Jan Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.   To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of precipitation for the period 2040-2069 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22) UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Temperature Projections 2070-2099
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of surface temperature (°C) for 2070-2099 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.   The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with an anomaly from UKCP18 global. Where the anomaly is the change in temperature at 2070-2099 relative to 1981-2010.   The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘tas Mar Lower’ is the average of the daily average temperatures in March throughout 2070-2099, in the second lowest ensemble member.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas Jan Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.   To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of surface temperature for the period 2070-2099 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22) UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Min Temperature Projections 2070-2099
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of minimum surface temperature (°C) for 2070-2099 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.   The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with an anomaly from UKCP18 global. Where the anomaly is the change in temperature at 2070-2099 relative to 1981-2010.   The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmin' (temperature minimum), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘tmin Mar Lower’ is the average of the daily minimum temperatures in March throughout 2070-2099, in the second lowest ensemble member.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tmin Jan Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.   To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of minimum surface temperature for the period 2070-2099 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22) UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Max Temperature Projections 2070-2099
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of maximum surface temperature (°C) for 2070-2099 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.   The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with an anomaly from UKCP18 global. Where the anomaly is the change in temperature at 2070-2099 relative to 1981-2010.   The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmax' (temperature maximum), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘tmax Mar Lower’ is the average of the daily minimum temperatures in March throughout 2070-2099, in the second lowest ensemble member.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tmax Jan Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.   To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of maximum surface temperature for the period 2070-2099 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22) UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Precipitation Projections 2070-2099
    What does the data show? This data shows the monthly averages of rainfall amount (mm) for 2070-2099 using a combination of the CRU TS (v. 4.06) and UKCP18 global RCP2.6 datasets. The RCP2.6 scenario is an aggressive mitigation scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are strongly reduced.   The data combines a baseline (1981-2010) value from CRU TS (v. 4.06) with a percentage change relative to 1981-2010 from UKCP18 global. Where the baseline value was <1mm/month, the projection value has been replaced with 'Null' because the percentage change may be unreliable with a very small baseline.   The data is provided on the WGS84 grid which measures approximately 60km x 60km (latitude x longitude) at the equator.   Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation), the month and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’. E.g. ‘pr Mar Lower’ is the average of monthly-total rainfall in March throughout 2070-2099, in the second lowest ensemble member.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578   Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr Jan Median’ values.   What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.   To select which ensemble members to use, the monthly averages of precipitation for the period 2070-2099 were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.   Data source CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22) UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)   Useful links Further information on CRU TS Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal  
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    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    What does the data show?  The data shows the annual average of surface temperature (°C) for the 1991-2020 period from HadUK gridded data. It is provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG).    Limitations of the data  We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.    What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?    This data contains a field for the average over the 1991-2020 period. It is named 'tas' (temperature at surface).    To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578    Data source:   ·       Version: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 21/06/2022)  ·       Source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0f  ·       Filename: tas_hadukgrid_uk_12km_ann-30y_199101-202012.nc      Useful links  ·       Further information on HadUK-Grid  ·       Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal 
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    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Precipitation Observations 1991-2020 12km
    What does the data show?  The data shows the annual average of precipitation amount (mm) for the 1991-2020 period from HadUK gridded data. It is provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG).    Limitations of the data  We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.    What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?    This data contains a field for the average over the 1991-2020 period. It is named 'pr' (precipitation).    To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578    Data source:   ·       Version: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 21/06/2022)  ·       Source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0f  ·       Filename: rainfall_hadukgrid_uk_12km_ann-30y_199101-202012.nc      Useful links  ·       Further information on HadUK-Grid  ·       Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal   
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    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Max Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    What does the data show?  Annual averages of daily maximum surface temperature (°C) for the 1991-2020 period from HadUK gridded data (v1.1.0.0), provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG).     Limitations of the data  We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.    What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?    This data contains a field for the average over the 1991-2020 period. It is named 'tmax' (temperature maximum).    To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578  Data source:   ·       Version: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)  ·       Source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0f  ·       Filename: tasmax_hadukgrid_uk_12km_ann-30y_199101-202012.nc      Useful links  ·       Further information on HadUK-Grid  ·       Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Min Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    What does the data show?  Annual averages of daily minimum surface temperature (°C) for the 1991-2020 period from HadUK gridded data (v1.1.0.0), provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG).     Limitations of the data  We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.    What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?    This data contains a field for the average over the 1991-2020 period. It is named 'tmin' (temperature minimum).    To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578    Data source:   ·       Version: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)  ·       Source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0f  ·       Filename: tasmin_hadukgrid_uk_12km_ann-30y_199101-202012.nc      Useful links  ·       Further information on HadUK-Grid  ·       Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Max Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    What does the data show?  The data shows monthly averages of daily maximum surface temperature (°C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data. It is provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG).    Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?  This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmax' (temperature maximum) and the month. E.g. 'tmax March' is the maximum surface temperature for March in the period 1991-2020.    To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578    Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tmax January’ values.    Data source:   ·       Version: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)  ·       Source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0f  ·       Filename: tasmax_hadukgrid_uk_12km_mon-30y_199101-202012.nc      Useful links  ·       Further information on HadUK-Grid  ·       Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Precipitation Observations 1991-2020 12km
    What does the data show?  The data shows monthly averages of precipitation amount (mm) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data. It is provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG).    Limitations of the dataWe recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?  This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation) and the month. E.g. 'pr March' is the rainfall amount for March in the period 1991-2020.    To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578  Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr January’ values.  Data source:   ·       Version: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)  ·       Source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0f  ·       Filename: rainfall_hadukgrid_uk_12km_mon-30y_199101-202012.nc      Useful links  ·       Further information on HadUK-Grid  ·       Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Min Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    What does the data show?  The data shows monthly averages of daily maximum surface temperature (°C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data. It is provided on a 12km British National Grid (BNG).Limitations of the data We recommend the use of multiple grid cells or an average of grid cells around a point of interest to help users get a sense of the variability in the area. This will provide a more robust set of values for informing decisions based on the data.   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?  This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmin' (temperature minimum) and the month. E.g. 'tmin March' is the minimum surface temperature for March in the period 1991-2020.    To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578    Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tmin January’ values.    Data source:   ·       Version: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)  ·       Source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0f  ·       Filename: tasmin_hadukgrid_uk_12km_mon-30y_199101-202012.nc      Useful links  ·       Further information on HadUK-Grid  ·       Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • UK SSP: Population (units: headcount)
    What does the data show? Population from the UK Climate Resilience Programme UK-SSPs project. The data is available for the end of each decade. Provided on a 2km Transverse Mercator Grid (prj4string: “+proj=tmerc +lat_0=49 +lon_0=-2 +k=0.9996012717 +x_0=400000 +y_0=-100000 +a=6377563.396 +rf=299.324975315035 +units=m +no_defs”). The source data was originally at a 1km resolution, but for usability it has been converted to 2km resolution.  This dataset contains SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4 and SSP5. For more information see the table below. Indicator Population Metric Population Unit Headcount Spatial Resolution 2km grid (sourced from 1km grid) Temporal Resolution Decadal Sectoral Categories N/A Baseline Data Source ONS 2019; LCM 2015, Worldpop 2020 Projection Trend Source IIASA; UK SSP urbanisation   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each SSP scenario and the year at the end of each decade. For example, 'SSP1_2040' is the projection for 2040 in the SSP1 scenario. There are a small number of features in this data with much higher population values than the majority of features. This can skew the styling, and so if you want to emphasise areas of high density population you may wish to adjust the style settings to account for this. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578 Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘SSP1_2020’ values. What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)? The global SSPs, used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments, are five different storylines of future socioeconomic circumstances, explaining how the global economy and society might evolve over the next 80 years. Crucially, the global SSPs are independent of climate change and climate change policy, i.e. they do not consider the potential impact climate change has on societal and economic choices. Instead, they are designed to be coupled with a set of future climate scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways or ‘RCPs’. When combined together within climate research (in any number of ways), the SSPs and RCPs can tell us how feasible it would be to achieve different levels of climate change mitigation, and what challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation might exist. Until recently, UK-specific versions of the global SSPs were not available to combine with the RCP-based climate projections. The aim of the UK-SSPs project was to fill this gap by developing a set of socioeconomic scenarios for the UK that is consistent with the global SSPs used by the IPCC community, and which will provide the basis for further UK research on climate risk and resilience. Useful links:Further information on the UK SSPs can be found on the UK SSP project site and in this storymap.Further information on RCP scenarios, SSPs and understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.    
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    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Temperature Observations 1991-2020
    What does the data show? The data shows monthly averages of surface temperature (°C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data. It is provided on a 2km British National Grid (BNG).   What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface) and the month. E.g. 'tas March' is the average surface temperature for March in the period 1991-2020.   To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578 Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tas January’ values.   Data source:  HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)   Useful links Further information on HadUK-Grid Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Precipitation Observations 1991-2020
    What does the data show? The data shows monthly averages of rainfall amount (mm) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data. It is provided on a 2km British National Grid (BNG). What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation) and the month. E.g. 'pr March' is the average rainfall amount for March in the period 1991-2020. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578 Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘pr January’ values   Data source:  HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)   Useful links Further information on HadUK-Grid Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Drought Severity Index, 12-Month Accumulations - Projections
    What does the data show? The Drought Severity Index is not threshold based. Instead, it is calculated with 12-month rainfall deficits provided as a percentage of the mean annual climatological total rainfall (1981–2000) for that location. It measures the severity of a drought, not the frequency. 12-month accumulations have been selected as this is likely to indicate hydrological drought. Hydrological drought occurs due to water scarcity over a much longer duration (longer than 12 months). It heavily depletes water resources on a large scale as opposed to meteorological or agricultural drought, which generally occur on shorter timescales of 3-12 months. However this categorisation is not fixed, because rainfall deficits accumulated over 12-months could lead to different types of drought and drought impacts, depending on the level of vulnerability to reduced rainfall in a region. The DSI 12 month accumulations are calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. What are the possible societal impacts? The DSI 12-month accumulations measure the drought severity. Higher values indicate more severe drought. The DSI is based on 12-month rainfall deficits. The impacts of the differing length of rainfall deficits vary regionally due to variation in vulnerability. Depending on the level of vulnerability to reduced rainfall, rainfall deficits accumulated over 12 months could lead to meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought. What is a global warming level? The DSI 12-month accumulations are calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the DSI 12-month accumulations, an average is taken across the 21 year period. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level. What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data? This data contains a field for each global warming level and two baselines. They are named ‘DSI12’ (Drought Severity Index for 12 month accumulations), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'DSI12 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'DSI12 2.5 median' is 'DSI12_25_median'.  To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578 Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘DSI12 2.0°C median’ values. What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean? Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, DSI 12 month accumulations were calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble. This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty. ‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful links This dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report. Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal
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    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Cooling Degree Days - Projections
    Annual Cooling Degree Days (annual sum of the number of degrees that the daily mean temperature is above 22°C each day), projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.This metric is related to power consumption for cooling systems and air conditioning required on hot days, so this index is useful for predicting future changes in energy demand for cooling. In practice, this varies greatly throughout the UK, depending on personal thermal comfort levels and building designs, so these results should be considered as rough estimates of overall demand changes on a large scale. This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'CDD' (Cooling Degree Days), the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'CDD 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'CDD 2.5 median' is 'CDD_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'CDD 2.0°C median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected Cooling Degree Days should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of 10mm Rainfall Days 1991-2020
    Annual number of 10mm rainfall days (days where there is greater than or equal to 10mm rainfall) averaged over 1991-2020, provided on a 2km BNG grid.This data contains a field for the average over the period, named 'Rainfall 10mm Days'.Data source:HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)More about HadUK-Grid - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of Frost Days - Projections
    Annual Count of Frost Days (annual number of days where the minimum daily temperature is below 0 °C), projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.Frost days have large negative impacts on crops, transportation, and energy demand. While there is a general reduction in frost days across the country, different administrative regions of the UK show a variation in the magnitude of the projected decrease in the numbers of frost days. There is a steady rate of decrease in frost days per year with global mean warming in all UK regions. See also Icing Days, which is a similar metric but measures more severe cold weather impacts.This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'Frost Days', the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'Frost Days 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'Frost Days 2.5 median' is 'FrostDays_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'Frost Days 2.0°C median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected number of Frost Days should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of Frost Days 1991-2020
    Annual number of frost days (days where minimum temperature falls below 0C) averaged over 1991-2020, provided on a 2km BNG grid.This data contains a field for the average over the period, named 'Airfrost Days'.Data source:HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)More about HadUK-Grid - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of Icing Days - Projections
    Annual Count of Icing Days (annual number of days where the maximum daily temperature is below 0°C), projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.This metric is similar to frost days, but measures more severe cold weather impacts as it is defined as a day where the maximum daily temperature is below 0°C. In other words, the temperature does not rise above 0°C for the whole day. By definition, the daily minimum will also be below 0°C so all icing days are also counted as frost days. On an icing day, more ice will form, having a greater impact than other frost days. Frost days and Icing Days have large negative impacts on crops, transportation, and energy demand.This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'Icing Days', the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'Icing Days 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'Icing Days 2.5 median' is 'IcingDays_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'Icing Days 2.0°C median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected number of Icing Days should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
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    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of Icing Days 1991-2020
    Annual number of icing days (days where maximum temperature is below 0C) averaged over 1991-2020, provided on a 2km BNG grid.This data contains a field for the average over the period, named 'Icing Days'.Data source:HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)More about HadUK-Grid - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
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    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of Summer Days - Projections
    Annual Count of Summer Days (annual number of days where the maximum daily temperature is above 25°C), projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.Summer days is a measure of the health impact from high temperatures and heatwaves - it is based on temperature thresholds which, when exceeded, can pose risks to human health and wellbeing. Summer Days are shown to increase everywhere throughout the UK. There is a higher frequency in the South of the UK, and this is projected to increase considerably with global warming. Tropical Nights is another metric measuring health impacts of high temperatures.This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'Summer Days', the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'Summer Days 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'Summer Days 2.5 median' is 'SummerDays_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'Summer Days 2.0°C median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected number of Summer Days should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
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    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of Summer Days 1991-2020
    Annual number of summer days (days where maximum temperature exceeds 25C) averaged over 1991-2020, provided on a 2km BNG grid.This data contains a field for the average over the period, named 'Summer Days'.Data source:HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)More about HadUK-Grid - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Count of Tropical Nights - Projections
    Annual Count of Tropical Nights (annual number of days where the minimum daily temperature is above 20°C), projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.Tropical nights is an index used for measuring how many extremely warm nights occur; it is relevant for human health because in periods of high daytime temperatures, it is important that the body has time to recover from the heat stress of the daytime during the lower temperatures at night. It should be noted that without examples in the present climate, it is not possible to validate this metric as effectively as the other metrics. Summer Days is another metric measuring health impacts of high temperatures.This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'Tropical Nights', the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'Tropical Nights 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'Tropical Nights 2.5 median' is 'TropicalNights_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'Tropical Nights 2.0°C median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected number of Tropical Nights should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Growing Degree Days - Projections
    Annual Growing Degree Days (annual sum of the number of degrees that the daily mean temperature is above 5.5°C each day), projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.This metric is useful for measuring whether conditions are suitable for plant growth. The GDD index increases throughout the UK with warming level suggesting potential for larger crop yields. GDD is based purely on temperature and so does not estimate the growth of specific species as it does not include any measure of rainfall/drought, sunlight, day length or wind, species vulnerability, nor does it account for plant dieback in extremely high temperatures. So, there is only a positive impact from increased GDD until temperatures reach a critical level above which there are detrimental impacts on plant physiology.This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'GDD' (Growing Degree Days), the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'GDD 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'GDD 2.5 median' is 'GDD_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'GDD 2.0°C median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected Growing Degree Days should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Heating Degree Days - Projections
    Annual Heating Degree Days (annual sum of the number of degrees that the daily mean temperature is below 15.5°C each day), projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.This metric is related to power consumption for heating required on cold days. Hence, this index is useful for predicting future changes in energy demand for heating.This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'HDD' (Heating Degree Days), the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'HDD 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'HDD 2.5 median' is 'HDD_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'HDD 2.0°C median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected Heating Degree Days should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Precipitation Observations 1991-2020 12km
    Annual averages of precipitation (mm) for 1991-2020 from HadUK 12km gridded data.This data contains a field for the average over the period. It is named 'pr' (precipitation).HadUK-Grid: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid Recommendations for use of this data:We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.Data source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0frainfall_hadukgrid_uk_12km_ann-30y_199101-202012.ncHadUK-Grid_v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 21/06/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Precipitation Projections 2050-2079
    Annual averages of precipitation (mm/day) for 2050-2079 from UKCP18 regional projections (12km grid), using the RCP8.5 pathway.This data contains a field for the average over the period. It is named 'pr' (precipitation) and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'pr Lower'UKCP: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. RCP8.5 is the highest of the plausible future emissions scenarios used by the IPCC, sometimes referred to as 'business as usual'.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean UK precipitation for the period 2050-2079 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' field in this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' field is the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' field is the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source:pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (median)pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower)pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper)UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    Annual averages of surface temperature (C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK 12km gridded data.This data contains a field for the average over the period. It is named 'tas' (temperature at surface).HadUK-Grid: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid Recommendations for use of this data:We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.Data source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0ftas_hadukgrid_uk_12km_ann-30y_199101-202012.ncHadUK-Grid_v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 21/06/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Temperature Projections 2050-2079
    Annual averages of surface temperature (C) for 2050-2079 from UKCP18 regional projections (12km grid), using the RCP8.5 pathway.This data contains a field for the average over the period. It is named 'tas' (temperature at surface) and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'tas Upper'UKCP: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. RCP8.5 is the highest of the plausible future emissions scenarios used by the IPCC, sometimes referred to as 'business as usual'.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean UK temperature for the period 2050-2079 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest temperature to highest. The 'lower' field in this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' field is the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' field is the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source:tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_01_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (median)tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_07_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower)tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_08_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper)UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Drought Severity Index, 12-Month Accumulations - Projections
    Drought Severity Index, 12-Month Accumulations. Projections for a range of future warming levels from UKCP18. Provided on a 12km BNG grid.This index is not threshold based. Instead, it is calculated with 12-month rainfall deficits provided as a percentage of the mean annual climatological total rainfall (1981–2000) for that location. It is therefore a measure of drought severity, not frequency, and higher values indicate more severe drought.12-month accumulations have been selected as this is likely to indicate hydrological drought - water scarcity over a much longer period of time which heavily deplete water resources on a large scale (as opposed to meterological or agricultural drought, which generally occur on shorter timescales of 3-12 months). However this categorisation is not fixed, because rainfall deficits accumulated over 12-months could lead to different types of drought and drought impacts, depending on the level of vulnerability to reduced rainfall in a region.This data contains a field for each warming level. They are named 'DSI12' (Drought Severity Index for 12 month accumulations), the warming level, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'DSI12 2.5 median' is the median value for the 2.5°C projection. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. 'DSI12 2.5 median' is 'DSI12_25_median'. Data defaults to displaying 'DSI12 2.0 median' values, use 'change style' to display other values.The warming levels used are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C, and two baselines are also provided for 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2000-2017 (corresponding to 0.835°C warming).What is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. Rather than giving projections for a specific date under different scenarios, one scenario is used and projections are given at the different warming levels. So this data shows the expected Drought Severity Index should these warming levels be reached, at the time that the warming level is reached.For full details, see 'Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK'. HM Hanlon, D Bernie, G Carigi and JA Lowe. Climatic Change, 166, 50 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value was taken from each ensemble member - the mean of a 21yr period centred on the year the warming level was reached. They were then ranked in order from lowest to highest.The 'lower' fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member.The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member.The 'median' fields are the median average of all ensemble members.This gives a median average value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Max Temperature 1981-2010
    Monthly averages of global maximum surface temperatures (C) for 1981-2010 from CRU TS data, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmax' (temperature maximum) and the month. E.g. 'tmax April' is the mean of daily-maximum temperatures in April throughout 1981-2010.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km. This is the same as the 60km grid used by UKCP18.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Precipitation 1981-2010
    Monthly averages of global rainfall amount (mm) for 1981-2010 from CRU TS data, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation) and the month. E.g. 'pr March' is the mean of monthly-total rainfall in March throughout 1981-2010.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km. This is the same as the 60km grid used by UKCP18.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Temperature 1981-2010
    Monthly averages of global surface temperature (C) for 1981-2010 from CRU TS data, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface) and the month. E.g. 'tas March' is the mean of daily-mean temperatures in March throughout 1981-2010.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km. This is the same as the 60km grid used by UKCP18.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Precipitation Observations 1991-2020
    Monthly averages of rainfall amount (mm) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data, provided on a 2km BNG grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation) and the month. E.g. 'pr March'.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.Data source:HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)More about HadUK-Grid - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-gridThis dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Precipitation Observations 1991-2020 12km
    Monthly averages of precipitation (mm) for 1991-2020 from HadUK 12km gridded data.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation) and the month. E.g. 'pr July'.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.HadUK-Grid: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid Recommendations for use of this data:We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.Data source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0frainfall_hadukgrid_uk_12km_mon-30y_199101-202012.ncHadUK-Grid_v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 21/06/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Precipitation Projections 2050-2079
    Monthly averages of precipitation (mm/day) for 2050-2079 from UKCP18 regional projections (12km grid), using the RCP8.5 pathway.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'pr July Median'.UKCP: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. RCP8.5 is the highest of the plausible future emissions scenarios used by the IPCC, sometimes referred to as 'business as usual'.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean UK precipitation for the period 2050-2079 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source:pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_12_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (median)pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_05_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower)pr_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_04_mon-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper)UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Temperature Observations 1991-2020
    Monthly averages of surface temperature (C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK gridded data, provided on a 2km BNG grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface) and the month. E.g. 'tas March'.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.Data source: HadUK-Grid v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 11/03/2022)More about HadUK-Grid - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    Monthly averages of surface temperature (C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK 12km gridded data.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface) and the month. E.g. 'tas March'.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.HadUK-Grid: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-gridRecommendations for use of this data:We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.Data source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0ftas_hadukgrid_uk_12km_mon-30y_199101-202012.ncHadUK-Grid_v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 21/06/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Temperature Projections 2050-2079
    Monthly averages of surface temperature (C) for 2050-2079 from UKCP18 regional projections (12km grid), using the RCP8.5 pathway.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'tas July Median'.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.UKCP: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP8.5 scenario. RCP8.5 is the highest of the plausible future emissions scenarios used by the IPCC, sometimes referred to as 'business as usual'.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean UK temperature for the period 2050-2079 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest temperature to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source:tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_01_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (median)tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_07_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (lower)tas_rcp85_land-rcm_uk_12km_08_ann-30y_200912-207911.nc (upper)UKCP18 v20190731 (downloaded 04/11/2021)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • UK SSP: Demography (units: thousands of people)
    Population age structure from the UK Climate Resilience Programme UK-SSPs project. This dataset contains only SSP2, the 'Middle of the Road' scenario.This data contains a field for each year (on a decadal basis). A separate field for 'Age Class' allow the data to be filtered e.g. by age class '10-14'.Boundaries use ONS LAD boundaries and have been simplified to 10m resolution. Indicator Demography Metric Age Structure Unit Thousands per age class Spatial Resolution LAD Temporal Resolution Yearly Sectoral Categories 19 age classes Baseline Data Source ONS 2019 Projection Trend Source IIASA What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?The global SSPs, used in IPCC assessments, are five different storylines of future socioeconomic circumstances, explaining how the global economy and society might evolve over the next 80 years. Crucially, the global SSPs are independent of climate change and climate change policy, i.e. they do not consider the potential impact climate change has on societal and economic choices.Instead, they are designed to be coupled with a set of future climate scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways or ‘RCPs’. When combined together within climate research (in any number of ways), the SSPs and RCPs can tell us how feasible it would be to achieve different levels of climate change mitigation, and what challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation might exist.Until recently, UK-specific versions of the global SSPs were not available combined with the RCP-based climate projections. The aim of the project was to fill this gap by developing a set of socioeconomic scenarios for the UK that is consistent with the global SSPs used by the IPCC community, and which will provide the basis for further UK research on climate risk and resilience. More details can be found on the UK SSP project site and in this storymap. This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • UK SSP: Inequality (units: ratio)
    S80/S20 income quintile ratio from the UK Climate Resilience Programme UK-SSPs project.This data contains a field for each year. A separate field for 'Scenario' allows the data to be filtered, e.g. by scenario 'SSP3'.Boundaries use ONS NUTS3 boundaries and have been simplified to 10m resolution. Indicator Inequality Metric S80/S20 income quintile ratio Unit Ratio [unitless] Spatial Resolution NUTS 3 Temporal Resolution Decadal Sectoral Categories N/A Baseline Data Source OECD 2011 Projection Trend Source Stakeholder process What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?The global SSPs, used in IPCC assessments, are five different storylines of future socioeconomic circumstances, explaining how the global economy and society might evolve over the next 80 years. Crucially, the global SSPs are independent of climate change and climate change policy, i.e. they do not consider the potential impact climate change has on societal and economic choices.Instead, they are designed to be coupled with a set of future climate scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways or ‘RCPs’. When combined together within climate research (in any number of ways), the SSPs and RCPs can tell us how feasible it would be to achieve different levels of climate change mitigation, and what challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation might exist.Until recently, UK-specific versions of the global SSPs were not available combined with the RCP-based climate projections. The aim of the project was to fill this gap by developing a set of socioeconomic scenarios for the UK that is consistent with the global SSPs used by the IPCC community, and which will provide the basis for further UK research on climate risk and resilience.More details can be found on the UK SSP project site and in this storymap.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • UK SSP: Life Expectancy (units: years)
    Life expectancy at birth from the UK Climate Resilience Programme UK-SSPs project.This data contains a field for each year. A separate field for 'Scenario' allows the data to be filtered, e.g. by scenario 'SSP3'.Boundaries use ONS LAD boundaries and have been simplified to 10m resolution. Indicator Health Metric Life expectancy at birth Unit Years Spatial Resolution LAD Temporal Resolution Decadal Sectoral Categories N/A Baseline Data Source ONS 2018 Projection Trend Source Stakeholder process What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?The global SSPs, used in IPCC assessments, are five different storylines of future socioeconomic circumstances, explaining how the global economy and society might evolve over the next 80 years. Crucially, the global SSPs are independent of climate change and climate change policy, i.e. they do not consider the potential impact climate change has on societal and economic choices.Instead, they are designed to be coupled with a set of future climate scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways or ‘RCPs’. When combined together within climate research (in any number of ways), the SSPs and RCPs can tell us how feasible it would be to achieve different levels of climate change mitigation, and what challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation might exist.Until recently, UK-specific versions of the global SSPs were not available combined with the RCP-based climate projections. The aim of the project was to fill this gap by developing a set of socioeconomic scenarios for the UK that is consistent with the global SSPs used by the IPCC community, and which will provide the basis for further UK research on climate risk and resilience.More details can be found on the UK SSP project site and in this storymap.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • UK SSP: Population (units: headcount)
    Population from the UK Climate Resilience Programme UK-SSPs project.This data contains a field for each scenario and year. E.g. 'SSP1_2040' is the projection for 2040 in the SSP1 scenario.There are a small number of features in this data with much higher population values than the majority of features. This can skew the styling, and so if you want to emphasise areas of high density population you may wish to adjust the style settings to account for this.Data is on a 2km grid using transverse mercator projection, prj4string: “+proj=tmerc +lat_0=49 +lon_0=-2 +k=0.9996012717 +x_0=400000 +y_0=-100000 +a=6377563.396 +rf=299.324975315035 +units=m +no_defs”. Source data was 1km resolution, but for usability it has been converted to 2km resolution. IndicatorPopulationMetricPopulationUnitHeadcountSpatial Resolution2km grid (sourced from 1km grid)Temporal ResolutionDecadalSectoral CategoriesN/ABaseline Data SourceONS 2019; LCM 2015, Worldpop 2020Projection Trend SourceIIASA; UK SSP urbanisationWhat are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?The global SSPs, used in IPCC assessments, are five different storylines of future socioeconomic circumstances, explaining how the global economy and society might evolve over the next 80 years. Crucially, the global SSPs are independent of climate change and climate change policy, i.e. they do not consider the potential impact climate change has on societal and economic choices.Instead, they are designed to be coupled with a set of future climate scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways or ‘RCPs’. When combined together within climate research (in any number of ways), the SSPs and RCPs can tell us how feasible it would be to achieve different levels of climate change mitigation, and what challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation might exist.Until recently, UK-specific versions of the global SSPs were not available combined with the RCP-based climate projections. The aim of the project was to fill this gap by developing a set of socioeconomic scenarios for the UK that is consistent with the global SSPs used by the IPCC community, and which will provide the basis for further UK research on climate risk and resilience.More details can be found on the UK SSP project site and in this storymap.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • UK SSP: Rail Infrastructure (units: railway line m/km2)
    Railway lines per area from the UK Climate Resilience Programme UK-SSPs project.This data contains a field for each year. A separate field for 'Scenario' allows the data to be filtered, e.g. by scenario 'SSP3'.Boundaries use ONS LAD boundaries and have been simplified to 10m resolution. Indicator Rail Infrastructure Metric Railway lines per area Unit m/km2 Spatial Resolution LAD Temporal Resolution Decadal Sectoral Categories N/A Baseline Data Source WFP 2014 Projection Trend Source Stakeholder process What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?The global SSPs, used in IPCC assessments, are five different storylines of future socioeconomic circumstances, explaining how the global economy and society might evolve over the next 80 years. Crucially, the global SSPs are independent of climate change and climate change policy, i.e. they do not consider the potential impact climate change has on societal and economic choices.Instead, they are designed to be coupled with a set of future climate scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways or ‘RCPs’. When combined together within climate research (in any number of ways), the SSPs and RCPs can tell us how feasible it would be to achieve different levels of climate change mitigation, and what challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation might exist.Until recently, UK-specific versions of the global SSPs were not available combined with the RCP-based climate projections. The aim of the project was to fill this gap by developing a set of socioeconomic scenarios for the UK that is consistent with the global SSPs used by the IPCC community, and which will provide the basis for further UK research on climate risk and resilience.More details can be found on the UK SSP project site and in this storymap.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • UK SSP: Social Cohesion (units: % of population reporting neighbours willing to help)
    Share of population reporting neighbours willing to help from the UK Climate Resilience Programme UK-SSPs project.This data contains a field for each year. A separate field for 'Scenario' allows the data to be filtered, e.g. by scenario 'SSP3'.Boundaries use ONS NUTS3 boundaries and have been simplified to 10m resolution. Indicator Social Cohesion Metric Share of population reporting neighbours willing to help Unit % Spatial Resolution NUTS 3 Temporal Resolution Decadal Sectoral Categories N/A Baseline Data Source UK HLS 2015 Projection Trend Source Stakeholder process What are Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)?The global SSPs, used in IPCC assessments, are five different storylines of future socioeconomic circumstances, explaining how the global economy and society might evolve over the next 80 years. Crucially, the global SSPs are independent of climate change and climate change policy, i.e. they do not consider the potential impact climate change has on societal and economic choices.Instead, they are designed to be coupled with a set of future climate scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways or ‘RCPs’. When combined together within climate research (in any number of ways), the SSPs and RCPs can tell us how feasible it would be to achieve different levels of climate change mitigation, and what challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation might exist.Until recently, UK-specific versions of the global SSPs were not available combined with the RCP-based climate projections. The aim of the project was to fill this gap by developing a set of socioeconomic scenarios for the UK that is consistent with the global SSPs used by the IPCC community, and which will provide the basis for further UK research on climate risk and resilience.More details can be found on the UK SSP project site and in this storymap.This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Min Temperature 1981-2010
    Monthly averages of global minimum surface temperatures (C) for 1981-2010 from CRU TS data, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmin' (temperature minimum) and the month. E.g. 'tmin April' is the mean of daily-minimum temperatures in April throughout 1981-2010.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km. This is the same as the 60km grid used by UKCP18.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Max Temperature Projections 2040-2069
    Monthly averages of global maximum surface temperatures (°C) for 2040-2069 from CRU TS and UKCP18 RCP2.6, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmax' (temperature maximum), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'tmax March Median' is the mean of daily-maximum temperatures in March throughout 2040-2069, in the median ensemble member.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km.More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/More about UKCP - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data combines a baseline 1981-2010 value from CRU TS with an anomaly (the temperature change in °C relative to 1981-2010) from UKCP18.The anomaly data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP2.6 scenario. RCP2.6 is a low emissions scenario, representing a mitigation scenario aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to around 2°C above preindustrial levels .What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean global precipitation for the period 2040-2069 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Max Temperature Projections 2070-2099
    Monthly averages of global maximum surface temperatures (°C) for 2070-2099 from CRU TS and UKCP18 RCP2.6, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmax' (temperature maximum), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'tmax March Median' is the mean of daily-maximum temperatures in March throughout 2070-2099, in the median ensemble member.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km.More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/More about UKCP - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data combines a baseline 1981-2010 value from CRU TS with an anomaly (the temperature change in °C relative to 1981-2010) from UKCP18.The anomaly data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP2.6 scenario. RCP2.6 is a low emissions scenario, representing a mitigation scenario aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to around 2°C above preindustrial levels .What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean global precipitation for the period 2070-2099 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Min Temperature Projections 2040-2069
    Monthly averages of global minimum surface temperatures (°C) for 2040-2069 from CRU TS and UKCP18 RCP2.6, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmin' (temperature minimum), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'tmin March Median' is the mean of daily-minimum temperatures in March throughout 2040-2069, in the median ensemble member.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km.More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/More about UKCP - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data combines a baseline 1981-2010 value from CRU TS with an anomaly (the temperature change in °C relative to 1981-2010) from UKCP18.The anomaly data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP2.6 scenario. RCP2.6 is a low emissions scenario, representing a mitigation scenario aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to around 2°C above preindustrial levels .What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean global precipitation for the period 2040-2069 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Min Temperature Projections 2070-2099
    Monthly averages of global minimum surface temperatures (°C) for 2070-2099 from CRU TS and UKCP18 RCP2.6, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmin' (temperature minimum), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'tmin March Median' is the mean of daily-minimum temperatures in March throughout 2070-2099, in the median ensemble member.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km.More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/More about UKCP - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data combines a baseline 1981-2010 value from CRU TS with an anomaly (the temperature change in °C relative to 1981-2010) from UKCP18.The anomaly data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP2.6 scenario. RCP2.6 is a low emissions scenario, representing a mitigation scenario aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to around 2°C above preindustrial levels .What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean global precipitation for the period 2070-2099 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Precipitation Projections 2040-2069
    Monthly averages of global rainfall amount (mm) for 2040-2069 from CRU TS and UKCP18 RCP2.6, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'pr March Median' is the mean of monthly-total rainfall in March throughout 2040-2069, in the median ensemble member.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.Data has been removed and replaced with 'Null' where the baseline 1981-2010 value was <1mm/month. This is because the percentage change may be unreliable with a very small baseline. 'Null' means that data is not provided, it doesn't mean 0mm precipitation. The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km.More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/More about UKCP - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data combines a baseline 1981-2010 value from CRU TS with a percentage change relative to 1981-2010 from UKCP18. Where the baseline value was <1mm/month, the projection value has been replaced with 'Null' because the percentage change may be unreliable with a very small baseline.The percentage change data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP2.6 scenario. RCP2.6 is a low emissions scenario, representing a mitigation scenario aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to around 2°C above preindustrial levels .What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean global precipitation for the period 2040-2069 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Precipitation Projections 2070-2099
    Monthly averages of global rainfall amount (mm) for 2070-2099 from CRU TS and UKCP18 RCP2.6, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'pr' (precipitation), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'pr March Median' is the mean of monthly-total rainfall in March throughout 2070-2099, in the median ensemble member.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.Data has been removed and replaced with 'Null' where the baseline 1981-2010 value was <1mm/month. This is because the percentage change may be unreliable with a very small baseline. 'Null' means that data is not provided, it doesn't mean 0mm precipitation. The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km.More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/More about UKCP - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data combines a baseline 1981-2010 value from CRU TS with a percentage change relative to 1981-2010 from UKCP18. Where the baseline value was <1mm/month, the projection value has been replaced with 'Null' because the percentage change may be unreliable with a very small baseline.The percentage change data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP2.6 scenario. RCP2.6 is a low emissions scenario, representing a mitigation scenario aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to around 2°C above preindustrial levels .What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean global precipitation for the period 2070-2099 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Temperature Projections 2040-2069
    Monthly averages of global surface temperatures (°C) for 2040-2069 from CRU TS and UKCP18 RCP2.6, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'tas March Median' is the mean of daily-mean temperatures in March throughout 2040-2069, in the median ensemble member.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km.More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/More about UKCP - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data combines a baseline 1981-2010 value from CRU TS with an anomaly (the temperature change in °C relative to 1981-2010) from UKCP18.The anomaly data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP2.6 scenario. RCP2.6 is a low emissions scenario, representing a mitigation scenario aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to around 2°C above preindustrial levels .What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean global precipitation for the period 2040-2069 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Global Temperature Projections 2070-2099
    Monthly averages of global surface temperatures (°C) for 2070-2099 from CRU TS and UKCP18 RCP2.6, provided on an approximately 60km grid.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tas' (temperature at surface), the month, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. E.g. 'tas March Median' is the mean of daily-mean temperatures in March throughout 2070-2099, in the median ensemble member.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.The grid is a lat-long grid, with cells close to the equator measuring approximately 60kmx60km.More about CRU TS - https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/More about UKCP - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/indexWhat is the data?The data combines a baseline 1981-2010 value from CRU TS with an anomaly (the temperature change in °C relative to 1981-2010) from UKCP18.The anomaly data is from the UKCP18 regional projections using the RCP2.6 scenario. RCP2.6 is a low emissions scenario, representing a mitigation scenario aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to around 2°C above preindustrial levels .What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?This scenario is run as 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, a single value for the mean global precipitation for the period 2070-2099 was taken from each ensemble member. They were then ranked in order from lowest precipitation to highest. The 'lower' fields are this data is the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The 'higher' fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The 'median' fields are the central (7th) ranked ensemble member.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the level of uncertainty in the projections.Recommendations for use of this data:1. We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.2. Consider whether the lower, median, or upper projections, or a combination, are most suitable for your use case.As described above, the spread of the ensemble members shown by the lower, median, and upper values indicates the level of uncertainty in the projections.Data source: CRU TS v. 4.06 - (downloaded 12/07/22)UKCP18 v.20200110 (downloaded 17/08/22)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Exploratory Extended Time-mean Sea Level Projections to 2300 (cm)
    Please note: there was an error with the units for this dataset that was resolved on 17.10.2022Sea level rise is the primary mechanism by which we expect coastal flood risk to change in the UK in the future. The amount of sea level rise depends on the location around the UK and increases with higher emissions scenarios. Here, we provide the extended exploratory time-mean sea level projections to 2300, i.e. the local sea level rise experienced at a particular location, produced as part of UKCP18. These exploratory projections show sea levels continue to increase beyond 2100 even with large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It should be noted that these projections have a greater degree of uncertainty than the 21st Century Projections and should therefore be treated as illustrative of the potential future changes. They are designed to be used alongside the 21st Century projections for those interested in exploring post-2100 changes. Note, that we cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise, as on these time horizons, the potential for additional sea level rise associated with dynamic ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is even more uncertain. Data is presented as the projected change (or 'anomaly') in the time-mean sea level change relative to the average value for the period 1981-2000. Values are given in centimetres and are shown on a WGS84 grid (approximately 12km) around the UK coastline. For each grid box the time-mean sea level change projections are provided for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP8.5 A number of percentiles: 5th percentile50th percentile95th percentile And on decadal timescales from 2010 to 2300. The data is supplied so that each row corresponds to the combination of a RCP emissions scenario and percentile value e.g. 'RCP45_50' is the RCP4.5 scenario and the 50th percentile. This can be viewed and filtered by the field 'RCP and Percentile'. The column (fields) corresponds to each decade, the fields are named by sea level anomaly at year x, e.g. ‘2150 seaLevelAnom'. Data is not filtered by default. Use filters to select an RCP and percentile, and then 'change style' to set which year is displayed. Use 'show table' to view all values. For a comprehensive description of the underpinning science, evaluation and results see the UKCP18 Marine Projections Report (Palmer et al, 2018).   What are the emission scenarios? The extended exploratory time-mean sea level projections were produced using some of the future emissions scenarios used in IPCC AR5. These are RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which are based on the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. RCP2.6 is a low emissions pathway, where radiative forcing peaks early and begins to fall before 2100. RCP4.5 is an intermediate 'stabilisation' pathway, where radiative forcing peaks before 2100 and begins to stabilize. RCP8.5 is a high emission pathway, where radiative forcing continues to rise beyond 2100. Further information is available in the RCP Guidance on the UKCP18 website.What are the percentiles? The extended exploratory time-mean sea level projections correspond to the IPCC AR5 “likely range”, which can also be interpreted as the 5th to 95th percentiles. The 5th to 95th percentiles are based on the underlying model distributions. The 50th percentile represents the central estimate amongst model projections and the 5th to 95th percentiles represent the projection range amongst models. It should be noted that there may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside this range. Data source: seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp26_ann_2007-2300.nc seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp45_ann_2007-2300.nc seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp85_ann_2007-2300.nc UKCP18 v20190315 (downloaded 04/04/2022) This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Time-mean Sea Level Projections to 2100 (cm)
    Please note: there was an error with the units for this dataset that was resolved on 17.10.2022Sea level rise is the primary mechanism by which we expect coastal flood risk to change in the UK in the future. The amount of sea level rise depends on the location around the UK and increases with higher emissions scenarios. Here, we provide the relative time-mean sea level projections to 2100, i.e. the local sea level rise experienced at a particular location, produced as part of UKCP18.Note, that we cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise associated primarily with dynamic ice discharge from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. It is important to stress that, although the time-mean sea-level projections presented here are to 2100, the extended exploratory time-mean sea level projections illustrate the multi-century sea level commitment.Data is presented as the projected change (or 'anomaly') in the time-mean sea level change relative to the average value for the period 1981-2000. Values are given in centimetres and are shown on a WGS84 grid (approximately 12km) around the UK coastline.For each grid box the time-mean sea level change projections are provided for three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP):RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP8.5A number of percentiles:5th percentile50th percentile95th percentileAnd on decadal timescales from 2010 to 2100.The data is supplied so that each row corresponds to the combination of a RCP emissions scenario and percentile value e.g. 'RCP45_50' is the RCP4.5 scenario and the 50th percentile. This can be viewed and filtered by the field 'RCP and Percentile'. The columns (fields) corresponds to each decade, the fields are named by sea level anomaly at year x, e.g. '2050 seaLevelAnom'.Data is not filtered by default. Use filters to select an RCP and percentile, and then 'change style' to set which year is displayed. Use 'show table' to view all values.For a comprehensive description of the underpinning science, evaluation and results see the UKCP18 Marine Projections Report (Palmer et al, 2018).What are the emission scenarios?The 21st Century time-mean sea level projections were produced using some of the future emissions scenarios used in IPCC AR5. These are RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which are based on the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. RCP2.6 is a low emissions pathway, where radiative forcing peaks early and begins to fall before 2100. RCP4.5 is an intermediate 'stabilisation' pathway, where radiative forcing peaks before 2100 and begins to stabilize. RCP8.5 is a high emission pathway, where radiative forcing continues to rise beyond 2100. Further information is available in the RCP Guidance on the UKCP18 website.What are the percentiles?The 21st Century time-mean sea level projections correspond to the IPCC AR5 “likely range”, which can also be interpreted as the 5th to 95th percentiles. The 5th to 95th percentiles are based on the underlying model distributions. The 50th percentile represents the central estimate amongst model projections and the 5th to 95th percentiles represent the projection range amongst models. It should be noted that there may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside this range.Data source:seaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp26_ann_2007-2100.ncseaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp45_ann_2007-2100.ncseaLevelAnom_marine-sim_rcp85_ann_2007-2100.ncUKCP18 v20190315 (downloaded 04/04/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Min Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    Monthly averages of daily minimum surface temperature (C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK 12km gridded data.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmin' (temperature minimum) and the month. E.g. 'tmin March'.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.HadUK-Grid: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-gridRecommendations for use of this data:We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.Data source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0ftasmin_hadukgrid_uk_12km_mon-30y_199101-202012.ncHadUK-Grid_v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Monthly Max Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    Monthly averages of daily maximum surface temperature (C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK 12km gridded data.This data contains a field for each month’s average over the period. They are named 'tmax' (temperature at surface) and the month. E.g. 'tmax March'.Data defaults to displaying January averages. Each monthly average is a field in the data. Use 'show table' to view all values, and 'change style' to change which month is displayed in the map.HadUK-Grid: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-gridRecommendations for use of this data:We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.Data source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0ftasmax_hadukgrid_uk_12km_mon-30y_199101-202012.ncHadUK-Grid_v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Min Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    Annual averages of daily minimum surface temperature (C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK 12km gridded data.This data contains a field for the average over the period. It is named 'tmin' (temperature minimuam).HadUK-Grid: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid Recommendations for use of this data:We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.Data source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0ftasmin_hadukgrid_uk_12km_ann-30y_199101-202012.ncHadUK-Grid_v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
  • Annual Max Temperature Observations 1991-2020 12km
    Annual averages of daily maximum surface temperature (C) for 1991-2020 from HadUK 12km gridded data.This data contains a field for the average over the period. It is named 'tmax' (temperature maximum).HadUK-Grid: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid Recommendations for use of this data:We don't recommend using this data at the resolution of a single cell.The higher resolution of this data improves representation of topography, coasts, etc. but at the same time increases some of the uncertainty for individual grid cells. And so it is recommended to work with multiple grid cells, or an average of grid cells around a point to improve certainty.Data source: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/652cea3b8b4446f7bff73be0ce99ba0ftasmax_hadukgrid_uk_12km_ann-30y_199101-202012.ncHadUK-Grid_v1.1.0.0 (downloaded 26/08/2022)This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service. This service is currently in Beta. We would like your help to further develop our service, please send us feedback via the site - https://climate-themetoffice.hub.arcgis.com/
    1
    Licence not specified
    over 2 years ago
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