Temperature or temperature-change from a baseline, for a range of future Global Warming Levels, averaged over sub-Local Authority areas for the winter months. What does the data show? The dataset uses projections of daily minimum air temperature close to the surface, which are averaged over the winter (December-February) period. Scenario Data Units 1981-2000 (equivalent to a 0.51°C global warming scenario) Temperature (°C) 2001-2020 (equivalent to a 0.87 °C global warming scenario) Temperature (°C) 1.5°C global warming level Temperature change from baseline* (°C) 2°C global warming level Temperature change from baseline* (°C) 2.5°C global warming level Temperature change from baseline* (°C) 3°C global warming level Temperature change from baseline* (°C) 3.5°C global warming level Temperature change from baseline* (°C) 4°C global warming level Temperature change from baseline* (°C) * baseline for the data values is 1981-2000 What is a global warming level? A scenario where the global average temperature is this many degrees above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). Estimates based on current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest we’ll reach a warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C. What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean? For each scenario, we provide a range of estimates to capture the inherent uncertainty in climate projections. In the climate projections that underpin this service (UKCP Local), a group of 16 models were run, each with slightly different formulations to create a set (“ensemble”) of 16 projections - and this dataset provides the median, 2nd lowest (lower) and 2nd highest (upper) of these 16 ensemble members. Please note that projections over Shetland are derived from UKCP Regional (12 km) resolution. The fields are named accordingly, e.g. ‘_25_lower’ for the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C. Where can I find out more? The data source is a 1km product derived from the Local UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Please note that projections over Shetland are derived from UKCP Regional (12 km) resolution, due to the lack of availability of UKCP Local over Shetland. To understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail. To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal. This dataset forms part of the Met Office’s Climate Data Portal service where other datasets can be found:https://climatedataportal.metoffice.gov.uk