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Hybrid machine learning model to predict 3D in-situ permeability evolution
L o a d i n g
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) - view all
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Last updated5 days ago
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Overview

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) can provide a sustainable and renewable solution to the new energy transition. Its potential relies on the ability to create a reservoir and to accurately evaluate its evolving hydraulic properties to predict fluid flow and estimate ultimate thermal recovery. Here we develop a hybrid machine learning (ML) model to predict permeability evolution of intermediate-scale (~10 m) hydraulic stimulation experiments at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (the EGS Collab project). We present a 3D map in situ permeability evolution for two of stimulation episodes in this project using microearthquakes (MEQs) data and injection histories of wellhead pressure and flow rate. This map includes both average reservoir permeability evolution over time and local fracture permeability distribution within the evolved reservoir. Compared with the ground truth of average permeability calculated from the well data, our predicted average permeability for these two episodes has a MSE value less than 2.9E-4 and R2 higher than 0.93, indicating that average permeability predicted by machine learning is consistent with good agreement with field observation. Additionally, distributed fracture permeability calculated by empirical equation over time shows the process of fracture propagation and identify the potential fluid path for geothermal reservoir.

EGSEGS collabNewberryenergyenhanced geothermal systemsflow ratefracture permeabilitygeothermalhydraulichydraulic fracturinginduced seismicitymachine learningmicroearthquakepermeability evolutionprocessed dataseismic data analysisstimulationwellhead pressure
Additional Information
KeyValue
Dcat Issued2022-11-22T07:00:00Z
Dcat Modified2023-10-04T19:45:01Z
Dcat Publisher NamePennsylvania State University
Guidhttps://data.openei.org/submissions/7429
Harvest Object Idd4d4a6f6-8d7c-46b1-b56a-c0f3212b1fb9
Harvest Source Id4eb7107f-a2b1-40e3-b36a-8161aa98a56e
Harvest Source TitleOpenEI Data Portal
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Files
  • Newberry Volcano EGS Demonstration Well 55-29 Stimulation Data

  • Newberry Well 55-29 Stimulation Data 2014

  • EGS Collab Experiment 1 Stimulation Data

  • Induced microearthquakes predict permeability creation in the brittle crust.pdf