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Modeled Utility-Scale Solar+Storage Operations 2020-2024
L o a d i n g
Organization
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) - view all
Update frequencyunknown
Last updated6 days ago
Overview

In this project, we model optimized hourly dispatch under energy, capacity, and ancillary-service market opportunities using a linear optimizer with perfect price and generation foresight and are sharing the hourly solar and storage generation profiles for our sample here using the base scenario. Large-scale (1MW+) co-located solar and battery storage projects are expanding rapidly in the United States, but their realized contribution to the bulk power system remains poorly understood because public project-level operating data are limited. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates the wholesale market value of 280 operational photovoltaic-plus-storage (PV+S) projects across the seven ISOs/RTOs and 19 additional balancing authorities, representing roughly 95% of the U.S. PV+S fleet in 2024. In the full briefing compare the modeled optimized wholesale market value with the value of standalone PV, project-specific levelized cost estimates, and empirical operating or revenue data where available. Under optimized dispatch with perfect price foresight, adding batteries could have increased the national generation-weighted market value of solar from $29/MWh to $75/MWh in 2024, primarily through higher capacity value, followed by ancillary-service and energy shifting revenue. For projects with available cost data, optimized PV+S market value exceeded levelized generation cost by nearly $35/MWh from 2020-2024 when accounting for tax credits. Empirical operations of 51 projects captured substantial but incomplete value: in 2024, observed PV+S operations realized $39/MWh, or 62% of modeled optimized value, with the storage premium reaching only 38% of its optimized potential. The gap between optimized and empirical value reflects multiple barriers that prevent projects from offering their full value to the bulk power system, including: limited participation in wholesale markets such as ancillary services that remain lucrative in some regions; tax-driven grid-charging restrictions for older projects; simplistic rule-based dispatch (charge in the middle of the day and discharge in the evening); imperfect price and generation forecasting; weak or missing price signals in non-ISO regions; and dispatch incentives tied to contracts or state programs rather than bulk-system value. These findings suggest that PV+S can be cost-effective from a wholesale-market perspective, but that improved market participation, forecasting, and alignment of operational incentives are needed for projects to realize their full system value proposition.

LBNLPVPVSUnited Statesancillary servicesbatteriescapacitycapacity valuedataenergyenergy valuegenerationgeneration profileshourly solarlinear optimizermarketmodeloperationsoptimizationpricesolarstoragewholesale markets
Additional Information
KeyValue
Dcat Issued2026-05-12T06:00:00Z
Dcat Modified2026-05-14T19:58:54Z
Dcat Publisher NameLawrence Berkeley National Lab
Guidhttps://data.openei.org/submissions/8687
Harvest Object Id8e20cadb-4b8e-433f-b025-4571dae59747
Harvest Source Id4eb7107f-a2b1-40e3-b36a-8161aa98a56e
Harvest Source TitleOpenEI Data Portal
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Trust Framework(s)None
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Data Sensitivity Classunknown
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Files
  • OEDI PVS Dispatch Data README.md

  • Utility Scale Solar and Storage Operations Homepage

  • Optimized Annual PV and PVS Market Values.xlsx

  • LBNL 2026- Identifying Barriers to Solar and Storage Hybrids Year 1 Briefing.pdf

  • Plant-level hourly solar and storage profiles with grid charging.zip

  • Plant-level hourly solar and storage profiles without grid charging.zip